The endgame for the newspaper is in sight, says Philip Meyer, hack-turned-professional-doomsayer and author of The Vanishing Newspaper. That 2005 book is commonly quoted as predicting April 2043 as the date on which the last New York Times appears - although in fact his model suggests the industry would have capitulated long before that.
In the American Journalism Review, Meyer now says he underestimated the velocity of the effect the internet would have. "It is now clear that it is as disruptive to today's newspapers as Gutenberg's invention of movable type was to the town criers, the journalists of the 15th century."
Now he says the newspapers can only survive by no longer trying to be all things to all men - and, crucially, by concentrating on retaining a core of trust and responsibility. The survivors will provide analysis, interpretation and investigative reporting "in a print product that appears less than daily, combined with constant updating and reader interaction on the Web".
But, Meyer warns: the opportunity to act may already have passed.