In a lengthy but brilliant article, Jeffrey Goldberg explores the possibility of Israel launching a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Among the 40 or so Israeli, Arab and American officials he speaks to, a consensus emerges that there is 50 per cent chance that such an attack will happen - by next July.
This could, Goldberg writes, 'change the Middle East forever'.
He also uses history to examine Israel's motives for an attack, and links the national security doctrine of not allowing another regional enemy to have a nuclear weapon with the Jewish experience of the Holocaust.
It's well worth a read.